The Future of Personal Transportation in Megacities of the World: Study
Posted in Research by Kate Archdeacon on March 29th, 2010
Source: University of Michigan Transport Research Institute via Going Solar Transport Newsletter
Image: Real-time Bus Map by kecko via flickr CC
From “The future of personal transportation in megacities of the world” by Luoma, J., Sivak, M., Zielinski, S.
Summary:
This study examined the future personal transportation in megacities of the world. Of particular interest was the future role of personal vehicles. To span ranges of geographical, political, and economic factors, the following 15 megacities were included in the analysis: Chicago, New York, London, Moscow, Paris, Buenos Aires, Mexico City, Rio de Janeiro, Sa?o Paulo, Bangalore, Calcutta, Delphi, Mumbai, Hong Kong, and Shanghai. The current and future values of the following factors were considered: population, wealth, level of motorization, public transportation, and modal split. Also discussed were selected urban transportation plans and strategies.
Based on the analysis, projections through 2025 were made for each megacity for changes in ownership of personal vehicles; distance traveled per capita by personal vehicle within inner core, for commuting, and for leisure; and for number of road fatalities per capita. The forecasts include the following:
• The largest increases in personal vehicle ownership will occur in the four Indian megacities and Shanghai.
• There will be no increase in the use of personal vehicles for inner-core transportation in any of the megacities.
• No increases are expected in the use of personal vehicles for commuting. • The largest increases in the use of personal vehicles for leisure traveling (and the largest increases in road fatalities) will take place in Shanghai, followed by the four megacities in India, Rio de Janeiro, and Sa?o Paulo. Overall, no substantial decrease in the reliance on personal vehicles is foreseen in the next 15 years anywhere in the examined megacities. To the contrary, an increased role of personal vehicles is forecasted for the megacities in India, China, and Brazil.
The above trends are based on treating the different transportation modes as independent and exclusive options. However, there is growing implementation and use of new mobility networks—integrated networks that provide a variety of connected and IT-enhanced transportation options door-to-door. Although such networks are expected to reduce the reliance on personal vehicles, the magnitude and nature of this effect remain to be ascertained.
The following section, from p. 23 & 24 of the study is particularly interesting for designers….KA
New mobility networks:
Thus far, this report has considered the different transportation modes mainly as independent and exclusive options. However, there is growing interest in more integrated networks that provide a variety of connected and IT-enhanced transportation options.
There are many reasons why approaches that combine and seamlessly connect various transportation modes and services are both in greater demand, and important to the future of transportation. Most importantly, as the population continues to move to urban centers, approaches that focus predominantly on personal vehicle use face increasing challenges related to road space and land use, congestion, flagging or insufficient infrastructure, a rapidly growing aging population, safety, equity and affordability, quality of life, and harmful emissions.
However, simply implementing one alternative solution to personal vehicles will seldom fully address these issues either. For example, alternative fuels for personal vehicles may improve air quality and mitigate climate change to some extent, but they do not solve land use, safety, or equity differentials in urban regions. Bus rapid transit or commuter trains may address congestion, pollution, and equity to an extent but they cannot get users the “last kilometer” (or few kilometers) home. There is also frequently a lack of spatial, technological, informational, or institutional connectivity to link the bus rapid transit to other modes seamlessly and to inform the user where mode and service proximity exist. Lack of connected door-to-door service (and related information about it) can affect mode shift, and therefore sustainability and equity.
In response, emerging approaches are more frequently focusing on providing last segment and door-to-door transportation within city regions, combining a range of modes, services, and design, and applying information technology to offer seamless connectivity and integrated journey planning, wayfinding, and fare payment for the user, as well as enhanced and integrated traffic information and management and revenue collection for the operator. While connecting modes is not new per se, systematically mapping and optimizing to create region- wide multimode (including single-occupancy vehicle), multiservice networks is just beginning to take hold, mostly because of increasing demand and partly because vastly improved telecommunication technology tools have made it more possible and affordable for both users and operators.
One example of systems-based integrated mobility and accessibility is referred to as new mobility networks. The concept originated in Bremen, Germany (e.g., Glotz-Richter, 2003), and it is now being customized and developed in city regions in India, South Africa, and North America in partnership with SMART at the University of Michigan (Zielinski and Berdish, 2008). The process starts by bringing together transportation leaders and professionals, related corporate players and entrepreneurs, relevant nongovernmental organizations and associations, and researchers to map already existing physical connection points, then to enhance, pilot, and promote the connected door-to-door network.
Beyond providing more connected options, pilot cities are beginning to experience added benefits of this approach, including scalability—optimizing what’s there (in some cities, phase one simply involves mapping and communicating existing connections using maps and signage and basic IT enhancements); cost effectiveness based on scalability; a positive mix of immediate-term and long-term benefits; increased personal safety and equity; increased attractiveness of the system for new users (moving beyond sustainable transportation as the second, lower-status choice and towards a feasible and attractive option); and a wide array of innovation, business, and new employment opportunities.
Overall, integrated, multimodal, IT-enhanced mobility—in particular through new mobility networks—is expected to reduce reliance on personal vehicles. However, the speed and extent of this shift is not yet clear, because the reductions are likely to vary with the specifics of each megacity and the details of the approach employed. Furthermore, the feasibility of implementing certain aspects of such approaches throughout most of the areas of each megacity has yet to be determined. These and related issues promise fertile ground for future research.
Amar Mukherjee Says: