http://www.crudeoilpeak.com

Many recommendations on what to do
http://www.crudeoilpeak.com/?p=290

sustainable cites
http://www.crudeoilpeak.com/?p=412

Rail development and public transport
http://www.crudeoilpeak.com/?p=38

He ends with little hope that the phobes will win: “It makes sense if we can agree that the dark side of automobility is a price worth paying for its blessings. but we have never agreed about these matters, and never will.” (final page, 186)

I am working on a scheme to separate driving from ownership. It was nice to see him mention carsharing a couple times, but cited research to say that it has had little long-term impact on those who have practiced it for a few years.

Pablo Duarte
p.duarte.uk@hotmail.com

From the V.E.I.L. (http://www.ecoinnovationlab.com/) perspective, the interesting aspects of this report are the type of recommendations made for mitigation strategies. We are focused at the moment on designs for sustainable transport, urban agriculture and distributed systems among other things.

Tony Eriksen’s study of declining oil production is summarized in this Figure.

http://www.theoildrum.com/files/ccst20090515.png

These data show a slow decline in global crude oil production currently and then accelerating after December 2010.

Because oil is used to produce oil, we should focus on net oil production, which is what we have left after oil is consumed to extract, refine, and deliver oil products to market. The rate of decline in net oil production is much steeper than for all oil produced, as shown in Murphy’s Figure 3.

http://www.theoildrum.com/files/Net%20Hubbert_6.png

The drop in net oil production will probably be steeper than Murphy forecasts. Matthew Simmons estimates that 100 trillion dollars of investment is need to replace the globe’s rusting infrastructure of pipelines, drilling rigs, platforms, and refineries. Much of this investment will consume oil to manufacture, transport, and assemble this infrastructure. And everyone who works on these 100 trillion dollars of projects will use their pay to buy products made out of oil or transported by oil. Currency is a ticket to buy oil. Thus less net oil will be produced than shown in Murhpy’s Figure 3.

Also, as oil exporting nations consume more oil domestically they export less to the developed nations; hence, the oil supply available to developed countries will be considerably less than shown in Murphy’s Figure 3.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Export_Land_Model

This analysis indicates that oil supplies for the developed world will decline precipitously beginning in the next two years and the decline will accelerate over time.

This suggests that a rapid economic global collapse will occur in less than 10 years.

This is what we must plan for. With increasing costs for gasoline and diesel, along with declining taxes and declining gasoline tax revenues, states and local governments will eventually have to cut staff and curtail highway maintenance. Eventually, gasoline stations will close, and state and local highway workers won’t be able to get to work. We are facing the collapse of the highways that depend on diesel and gasoline powered trucks for bridge maintenance, culvert cleaning to avoid road washouts, snow plowing, and roadbed and surface repair. When the highways fail, so will the power grid, as highways carry the parts, large transformers, steel for pylons, and high tension cables from great distances. With the highways out, there will be no food coming from far away, and without the power grid virtually nothing modern works, including home heating, pumping of gasoline and diesel, airports, communications, water distribution systems, waster water treatment, and automated building systems.

http://survivingpeakoil.blogspot.com/2008/12/towns-and-cities-should-preparation-for_14.html

http://www.peakoilassociates.com/POAnalysis.html